Good-good to firm in places
Some interesting pointers from the stats over the last 10 years in this one. There is a low draw bias which favours stalls 3 & 4, each producing 3 winners. Drawn in these ‘coveted’ stalls today we find SIR MAXIMILLIAN & REFLEKTOR. Stall 7 has produced 2 winners and that spot is occupied by current second favourite MAJESTIC HERO. Stalls 6 and 2, with one win a piece, are taken by CONFESSIONAL and TAEXALI respectively. Age wise, the numbers are stacked in the favour of 5 year old’s – who have taken 4 wins, followed by 4 year old’s with 3 victories. Single winners are found for ages 6, 7 and 8. The top weighted winner has been 9-3 and the lowest 8-4, a range which covers 8 of the runners here. The highest rated horse to have won this so far was racing from a mark of 96, a rating which includes all but two of these runners. In respect of market accuracy, only two favourites have prevailed here and only two previous winners have won LTO, both of which are of interest in respect to the LTO winner and current favourite – El ASTRONAUTE. Creating a short list which best fits with the stats available leaves us with the following runners – BLITHE SPIRIT 10/1, POWERALLIED 16/1, MAJESTIC HERO 11/2 & SOIE D’LEAU 12/1.
In terms of value, the most attractive option from this quartet appears to be SOIE D’LEAU. There is a serious question over his unfavourable draw from stall 12 and he’ll do very well to overcome this. However, there are lots of positives for the selection – he’s 5 years old, is a perfect fit in the weights, and comes here after having raced in the last three weeks – which six of the last ten winners have also done. He has a sole C&D victory (though that was technically over further) and has already had his first run back of the season. Over such a short trip a case could be made for most of these runners and it will undoubtedly be a fiercely competitive affair. However, the selection offers extremely good ‘place’ value and does tick a lot of boxes. With a good break and positioning, there’s every chance he can run very close to winning this.
SOIE D’LEAU 0.5 pts e/w 12/1 Generally Available