x4 Race Previews at Hamilton, Ripon & Wolverhampton

15:10 Hamilton 7 Jun 2017

Hamilton Park Supporting Racing To School Handicap (Class 6) (4YO plus) 1M 5F 16Y

I’m expecting the going to get softer at Hamilton and that needs to enter our equations for this one. HIGH EXPECTATIONS heads into this race with exactly that on his shoulders. The six year old has a great mark and goes well at this trip. However, he’s likely to open and go off at a fairly sharp price so in terms of value we’ll need to look elsewhere. With the weather as it’s been, there could be a good value play in this line up in the form of TED’S BROTHER. Laura Morgan’s inmate returned from a short break LTO over a trip which may not have suited. If that run is forgiven then the earlier form of this year 5323 starts look quite good in the context of this race. We know that this horse gets the softer ground all day long and this trip is much more suitable. There aren’t any stellar stats for either trainer or jockey at the moment, but given that apart from the favourite this appears to be an open race, it looks like there could be a nice play for the selection.


TED’S BROTHER 0.5 pts e/w 16/1 Generally Available


16:10 Hamilton 7 Jun 2017

Weatherbys Hamiltonian Handicap (Class 4) (4YO plus) 1M 1F 35Y

I’ve no doubt that CARNAGEO will be popular in the betting market and they certainly have the right trainer/jockey combination to back this up with. That said, there looks to be a really progressive type hidden in here at the top of the weights. TOBOGGAN’S FIRE is upped a stone from her last appearance at this course and if the going were anything other than soft with lots more rain forecast, I’d probably leave the selection alone in this one. However, with conditions as they are, there is a good play for this horse in this one. She’s won twice over just further than the mile and in the same class. Her last victory in March was only 9lbs lower than her assignment today – and in this one the additional weight could be of use to her. There’s some good value in this selection with solid each way claims and at the least the chance of mixing it towards the line.


TOBOGGAN’S FIRE 0.5 pts e/w 14/1 Generally Available


20:05 Ripon 7 Jun 2017

Directors Cup Handicap (Class 3) (4YO plus) 6F

JORDON SPORT has been in good form and this race looks like it could be an opportunity for him to run really well. He’s a really tempting option but looks like he’s weighted just about right here. PIPERS NOTE is another horse worth mentioning and we could expect him to give a good account of himself in this one. However, there is another runner in here that looks set up to run a cracker given their treatment and thus gets the vote. FLYING PURSUIT has a good C&D strike rate and good strike rate over this distance. The gelding looks to be heading in the right way form-wise and with his treatment here looks to have the biggest run in him from these. The softer going should suit perfectly and his middle draw is a slight positive. All in all there are quite a few positives for the selection and he represents good each way value in the very least.


FLYING PURSUIT 0.5 pts e/w 15/2 Available Betfair


16:20 Wolverhampton (A.W.) 7 Jun 2017

Contact Us At fclgf.com Handicap (Class 4) (4YO plus) 7F 36Y

TAVENER is turning into a very consistent performer and given his entry here, he looks sets to continue with the kind of form that has seen him place six times and win three times from his sixteen starts this year. He steps up to Class 4 for the first time, but this look like an opportunity as good as any for him to frank the promise of his runs so far this year. There are dangers aplenty in this race, but with Finley Marsh claiming 7lbs on such a consistent horse we would expect him to be very close to winning this.


TAVENER 0.5 pts e/w 10/1 Generally Available


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x5 Race Previews 06 June 2017

14:30 Chepstow 6 Jun 2017

Vanguardia Consulting Handicap (Class 5) (3YO plus) 1M 14Y

Eve Johnson Houghton is in rude form at the moment and conditions look set to favour another one of her charges in this one. FANTASY QUEEN has a good strike rate around this course and is also 1/1 at today’s C&D. Going back up to the mile trip from her two previous starts looks to be in her favour as she goes well at this trip. Although this is a career-equalling weight assignment for her, the going should swing things in her favour and just tips the balance into a very good value proposition. She’s got solid each way claims and the yard’s current run of form is hard to ignore, especially as three from the five recent victories have come on similar going.

FANTASY QUEEN 0.5 pts e/w 11/1 Available Bet365


15:00 Chepstow 6 Jun 2017

Alan Bushell On Course Bookmaker Handicap (Class 6) (3YO only) 7F 16Y

VIOLA PARK was given a nice positive ride LTO under today’s returning jockey Franny Norton and a replication of those tactics should see the selection go close in this one. Although he’s been most effective on the AW to date, his breeding would have us think that he’ll be transferring that winning form to the turf sooner or later and these conditions could prove a good opportunity to back him to do so at a decent price.

VIOLA PARK 0.5 pts e/w 6/1 Available Bet365


15:30 Chepstow 6 Jun 2017

Monmouthshire Business Awards Handicap (Class 4) (3YO plus) 6F 16Y

Although the best of it is now two year’s old, BONJOUR STEVE’s form at this course is brought back into focus given his treatment here which sees him back down to a very dangerous weight. We have to concede that his strike rate hasn’t been the best, but he’s got talented claimer Mitch Godwin (5lbs) on board today – and he’s been hitting the woodwork a lot recently. Today could be the opportunity he’s been waiting for get over the line in first place since the middle of May. A low draw is a positive in this one and coming from stall 2 he should be able to set up and time his run to the line perfectly.

BONJOUR STEVE 0.5 pts e/w 12/1 Generally Available


16:00 Chepstow 6 Jun 2017

GD Environmental – Taking Waste Further Fillies’ Handicap (Class 5) (3YO plus) 1M 2F

DISTANT HIGH has got the best depth in her C&D strike rate in this line up – by quite some way; three wins from nine runs. She is however, high enough in the weights to give her the decent price that makes this a positive value play. She’s gone off as SP favourite in four of her last five starts here, which, even given the slight hike in the weights, means she’s good value for an each way play at the very least. Her regular jockey Tom Marquand returns for the ride and as we know that these two perform well together, especially at this track and trip, there’s really every possibility that he can bring the mare home in first place.

DISTANT HIGH 0.5 pts e/w 11/1 Available Bet365


17:30 Chepstow 6 Jun 2017

Labyrinth Challenge Chepstow 8th & 9th July Handicap (Class 5) (3YO plus) 1M 4F

There’s a lot to like about the chances here for BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY. Even before we get into the horse’s performance, it’s not often one finds a GALILEO progeny at this price in this sort of race without a very good reason. Given his treatment, I can’t see any glaring reason why this horse should be at this price. He’s 2/2 at track and trip and isn’t given an impossible weight assignment at all. I think it’s totally fine to excuse the first two runs back for the season which have come at shorter than this and from all of these runners, the selection looks the most likely to relish the step back up in trip. The draw is a negative true, but over this distance there’s plenty of opportunity to find some luck in running and with the right ride by Shane Kelly (who won the last time he rode at this C&D) there’s every chance that this horse can come home very close to first in this one.

BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY 0.5 pts e/w 14/1 Generally Available


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Race Previews – Monday 05 June 2017

15:00 Thirsk 5 Jun 2017

Pay For Racing UK Via Phone Bill Handicap (Class 6) (4YO plus) 1M 4F 8Y

Although the current going at Thirsk is given as good-to-firm, the course has been watered to prevent further drying, it’s raining today (Sunday) and there’s forecast rain all day from early tomorrow. With that in mind it looks like conditions could be well suited to TONTO’S SPIRIT. The selection gets this trip all day long and comes into this with some very fine hurdle performances under his belt. He’s had a couple of these behind him recently and his treatment looks very fair. Although he’s only 1/10 from flat turf starts, a closer inspection of those runs reveals that he’s been out of favour treatment-wise, upped in class or ran on ground which might not have suited. In other words, there seems enough room to think that he’ll be closer to his best under these conditions and trip in this one. He’s got solid each way claims and he’s every chance of being in the mix come the line.

TONTO’S SPIRIT 0.5 pts e/w 11/4 Available Betfair


16:00 Thirsk 5 Jun 2017

Penelope Denny Over The Hill Handicap (Class 5) (4YO plus) 7F 218Y

Keeping the theme of ground conditions at Thirsk, it looks like there’s a horse in here that could well take advantage of the slightly heavier going. FRAMLEY GARTH is dropped in both class, and perhaps more importantly distance in this one and could relish the shorter trip. Most of his best work has come under 10f and with his fair treatment he has a chance to be in the mix here.

FRAMLEY GARTH 0.5 pts e/w 22/1 Generally Available


19:40 Windsor 5 Jun 2017

Sky Bet Windsor Sprint Series Handicap (Class 3) (4YO plus) 6F 12Y

There are two interesting runners in this one from a value perspective – LITTLE PALAVER and UDONTDOYOU. The former goes very well at this distance and has won here recently from higher in the weights. Cox’s yard is in great form, and a very good claimer, Hector Crouch, takes 3lbs off. The latter is dropped back to his last winning class and only has a couple of pounds more for his trouble in this one. He’s won here over shorter a class down, but this looks like a good opportunity for him to get close as well. There’s really not much between these two in terms of value, and it’s quite possible that one of them will get their heads in the front in this one.

LITTLE PALAVER 0.5 pts e/w 8/1 Available PaddyPower

UDONTDOYOU 0.5 pts e/w 15/2 Available Betfair


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Results – No Selections Sunday

Results

PEARL SPECTRE came in 9th -1pt for the day, -4pts for the month so far.


Race Previews

There’s nothing that takes the fancy tomorrow, so we’ll be back with selections for Monday on Sunday afternoon. Until then…


 

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Daily Focus – Saturday

Results

SEAMSTER came in 4th at Catterick and FINAL FRONTIER was certainly not disgraced coming home in 7th. -2pts for the day


Race Previews

At the time of writing SONG OF LOVE has just been made a NR, so we just have the one today now.

Race Previews – 03 June 2017

x2 Race Previews – 03 June 2017 #Epsom #DoncasterRaces Continue reading

Whatever takes your fancy, good luck!


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Race Previews – 03 June 2017

16:15 Doncaster 3 Jun 2017

Betfred Watch Sky Sports In Our Shops Handicap (Class 4) 1M 3F 197Y

There are number of creditable performers amongst the runners in here, including CHANCERY, ARCHIPPOS and SELLINGALLTHETIME. From these, the latter makes the most appeal with his C&D victories. However, it looks like there’s another Irish raider who could provide us with a nice value play in this one. SONG OF LOVE isn’t an obvious candidate and that’s duly reflected in his opening price. His record on the turf isn’t great with figures reading 0/9, although he can be readily excused for his last outing where he was ramped up the classes at York. One of the main reasons for selecting this horse is the manner in which his victories have come. He looks like a real hold-up horse and has the ability to make up vast distances in the final couple of furlongs. He’s come from almost last to first (or very close second) on many occasions and this ability could catch a few other runners out in this race. Whilst ideally he shouldn’t be given too much to do in the final third, we do know that this horse finishes like the proverbial train. One obvious requirement for such a strategy is that it does rely on a certain amount of luck in-running. However, if a gap can be found – and he’s in contention anywhere from 3 furlongs out, he should be able to put together a very strong finish and run out very close to the front.

SONG OF LOVE 0.5 pts e/w 20/1 Generally Available


17:50 Epsom Downs 3 Jun 2017

Investec Asset Management Handicap (Class 2) (4YO plus) 6F 3Y

We were on with NAGGERS at 7/1 when he won in good style LTO and it looks like he could cement the promise of his season’s form here and good luck to him. He does, however, have a much stiffer test on his hands here and not the best of draws from which to do it. In light of those facts, I’m happy to take him on with a good value alternative in this one. Jumping straight into the selection – in this one we are going to side with PEARL SPECTRE. To begin with the negatives – he’s stepping up into solid company, has never ran at this course, is 0/3 on his turf starts and his trainer isn’t in any kind of form streak either. However, given the nature of this beast I still feel there’s a good value play here for the following reasons. To start with he’s a strong, prominent front runner which will be very much in his favour over this sharp trip – even though there will undoubtedly be stiff competition for a leading position from the off. Making up ground late in this one isn’t going be in anyone’s favour and for my money the selection should be right in the mix at the front from the off. To help in this respect, he has a plumb wide draw and should be able to put that space to use early doors. Although he’s only won once over this trip, he has placed in over half of his attempts. He’s a gutsy performer which could be key in the run in to the line in this one as it’s sure to be congested. He’s a good value each way play for me and with a touch of luck in running, there’s every chance he could be right there on the line come the finish here.

PEARL SPECTRE 0.5 pts e/w 28/1 Available Bet365


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Daily Focus – Friday

Results

Our sole selection yesterday CONQUERESS (advised 14/1) went off at 5/1 in the end before tailing off and coming home 11th -1pt for the day.


Today’s Racing

With a mountain of racing and cards today, the watchword is indeed; focus. Although it’s tempting to get involved with the more prestigious races over the next few days, the purpose of this blog is to identify runners that offer the opportunity to out run their odds when they appear to be over priced. These opportunities don’t always go hand in hand with the larger meetings, with many of the most prestigious races being won by well backed and subsequently short priced winners. To that end, from a shortlist of six, we have two selections for today which are detailed below. I will also be offering a number of ‘One To Watch’ runners, the purpose of which is to include other races in which make appeal from an ‘interesting’ point of view, but which may not represent the best overall value in the long-run. Whatever takes your fancy, good luck!


Race Previews

x2 Race Previews 02 June 2017


One To Watch

One To Watch – 3.45 Epsom – STORM KING 14/1 #Epsom Continue reading


 

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One To Watch

I haven’t selected ‘One To Watch’ in the last few days as there’s not that much that has stood out. However, tomorrow there is one runner that really catches the eye and looks to have been overlooked by the market. There’s a real temptation to select this horse for a tip, but I’ve already got two and I’m quite comfortable with those for now.

Most of the card at Epsom looks very competitive and most runners appear to be priced up very keenly. With that in mind any horse that ‘sticks out’ should be worth a mention.

15:45 Epsom Downs 2 Jun 2017

Investec Wealth & Investment Handicap (Class 2) 1M 2F 17Y

I totally appreciate the quality of the two leaders in the market at the time of writing – BROROCCO and FIDAAWY and a good case could be made for either of them. However, this race has not been won from the front of the market very often at all and I can see another longer-priced victor taking gold in this one tomorrow. One really strong contender from the middle of the market is STORM KING. By SHARMARDAL he’s got easily the best breeding for both this distance and going, though it has to be noted that a number of the sires of runners in this race only have limited progeny stats available at this time. With his breeding credentials established as very strong, there are further positives for this horse. His rather long season appears to be reaching its peak right at the most important time and he arrives here with with form reading 1321. It’s duly noted that these races have been in lower grades, but his step up here is reflected in his treatment which at 8-7 is second lowest only to last year’s winner IMSHIVALLA. He’s won well over this distance and further from higher up in the weights, and although there’s the question of how he’ll handle the demanding course, I think there’s a better than fair chance he can be right there in the mix come the line.

 

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In Case You Missed It

Results

Our sole selection for the day CONQUERESS (advised 14/1) went off at 5/1 in the end before tailing off and coming home 11th -1pt for the day.

Race Previews

There are so many race meetings on tomorrow, I do question the ‘planning’ that goes into this monster diary-clash. However, with that said from a shortlist of six, we’ve two selections – one at Catterick in the afternoon and one at Doncaster in the evening. Whatever takes your fancy, good luck!

x2 Race Previews 02 June 2017

 

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Race Previews – Friday 02 June 2017

16:55 Catterick 2 Jun 2017

Start Your Racing UK Free Trial Handicap (Class 4) (4YO plus) 5F 212Y

SEAMSTER is the value play and thus the selection in this one. Before we get into the reasons for the selection, let’s get the negatives out of the way first. No horse older than 7 has won this race in the last ten runnings and favourites have had a slight positive bias as well. Moving on to the reasons for the selection, this horse does have a lot of positives. He’s won 2/2 races at this course and although both of those victories were over a shorter trip, we know that he goes well enough here to have got his head in front in both of his starts here. All but two of his previous efforts over this trip have been on the AW – the only turf starts he’s had at 6f have come on much softer ground than we’re expecting (even allowing for the forecast rain) which more than likely have not suited him at all. He’s drawn in the perfect stall (4) and with his regular jockey Cameron Noble claiming the full 7lbs looks well enough treated to make a bold bid in this one.

SEAMSTER 0.5 pts e/w 13/2 Generally Available


19:30 Doncaster 2 Jun 2017

Blue Line Taxis Barnsley Supporting Wpcc Handicap (Class 3) 7F 6Y

From a value perspective this race appears to me to be a real toss-up between FINAL FRONTIER and WELLIESINTHEWATER. The former is sent out for the first time for the very much in form Cox yard and has won in better company than this although over slightly shorter trips. The latter is in very good form coming into this and isn’t given an impossible assignment to overcome, but his winning times haven’t been the fastest. With a tough choice between the two, the slightest of preferences is for the selection based on the likely going at the off and FINAL FRONTIER just edges it. If the rain does stay away I would also expect a big run from BURNT SUGAR given his treatment in this one.

FINAL FRONTIER 0.5 pts e/w 14/1 Generally Available


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