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Daily Focus – Saturday

Good morning! A very good day’s racing ahead of us today, hopefully you can find something you like amongst this lot. Whatever takes your fancy, good luck!

Results

From our selections, SIR CHAUVELIN fought oh-so-well to get his head in front and returned a very pleasing 7/1 winner. VICTOR’S BET was a non runner and CLEAR SPRING finished just out of the places in forth +4.38pts for the day.

One To Watch

It’s also worth mentioning that from our highlighted runners yesterday we had a 20/1 winner in COOLFITCH for David O’Meara and a 5/1 place from TAKE TWO. Even if you had bet on just these two separately you would have ended the day up +14.62pts.

5 Point Super Saturday

This is the biggest ‘point-day’ to date and so we’re hoping for a couple of these to really do the business. All of today’s selections are here and the good news is that a couple of their prices have held up overnight (MEDBURN DREAM opened at 25/1 and was almost immediately cut to 16’s)

 

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Daily Focus – Thursday

Chester

In the Chester Cup after being advised at 12/1, WHO DARES WINS was backed into 5/1 before the off. He ran a game race but ended up finishing 4th from 17 for nice each way returns +1pt.

In the Boodles Handicap SOIE D’LEAU was a non runner.

Chelmsford

HAMMER GUN never got into the race at all and finished 9th of 9, his worst result since September 2016. -1pt Onward we go…

Our One To Watch yesterday RELY ON ME went out to 20/1 before going off at 10/1 and coming home in 4th.

The week just gets busier from a racing perspective and we’re already onto Friday’s cards with racing from Ascot, Chester, Lingfield, Nottingham and Ripon!

Today we have one Race Preview and One To Watch.

Race Preview – 13:50 Chester 11 May 2017

One To Watch – 16:45 Catterick 11 May 2017

If you’d prefer to listen to the Race Preview at Chester, it’s now available in audio:

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Race Previews

13:50 Chester 11 May 2017 Gateley Plc Changing The Legal Landscape Handicap 1M 2F 70Y

 

Good-good to firm in places

The draw in this one has been kindest to those racing from stalls 3 and 6, although single winners have come from throughout the stalls. No horse has won this in the last 10 years from a weight above 9-1, which only excludes one runner – the returning BERKSHIRE. The top rated horse to win in the same period has had a mark of 97, which excludes not only the aforementioned but also MISTIROC. Returning from a break isn’t a positive, with 5 previous winners having races within the last three weeks and 6 having raced in the last 41 days. That would add SAGELY to our list of ‘out of favour’ stats-wise runners. Favourites also haven’t fared well, with just 3 winners in the period which might do for the returning KHAIRAAT who runs for the respected paring of Stoute and Crowley. Age-wise, 4 year old’s have had the lion’s share of wins with 4 in the period – which is a positive for BROROCCO who meets all the relevant criterion. However, it must be said SENNOCKIAN STAR also fits the above requirements well and has as very good C&D time of 2m7.67 set in 2015 from 9-4. He finds himself 9lbs better off from that run and has arguably the best draw in stall 6. The only possible negative is that he’s out of favour from an age perspective as a 7yo (1 winner in the period). However, he’s saddled today by the respected duo of Johnston and Norton and based all of the above represents the best value in this field.

Option 1 – BROROCCO 1 pt win 11/4 Generally Available

Option 2 – SENNOCKIAN STAR 0.5 pts e/w 12/1 Generally Available

Option 3 – BROROCCO / SENNOCKIAN STAR Combination Forecast

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Excellent Value

Chester Cup – Excellent Value

15.35 Chester

With most firms paying 1/4 odds to 5 places GOOD TRADITION is fantastic value at 40/1. There’s every chance he can out run these odds today and must be worth an each-way tickle…

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Race Previews

Race Preview – 15:00 Chester 10 May 2017 Boodles Diamond Handicap (Class 2) (4YO plus) 5F 15Y

Good-good to firm in places

Some interesting pointers from the stats over the last 10 years in this one. There is a low draw bias which favours stalls 3 & 4, each producing 3 winners. Drawn in these ‘coveted’ stalls today we find SIR MAXIMILLIAN & REFLEKTOR. Stall 7 has produced 2 winners and that spot is occupied by current second favourite MAJESTIC HERO. Stalls 6 and 2, with one win a piece, are taken by CONFESSIONAL and TAEXALI respectively. Age wise, the numbers are stacked in the favour of 5 year old’s – who have taken 4 wins, followed by 4 year old’s with 3 victories. Single winners are found for ages 6, 7 and 8. The top weighted winner has been 9-3 and the lowest 8-4, a range which covers 8 of the runners here. The highest rated horse to have won this so far was racing from a mark of 96, a rating which includes all but two of these runners. In respect of market accuracy, only two favourites have prevailed here and only two previous winners have won LTO, both of which are of interest in respect to the LTO winner and current favourite – El ASTRONAUTE. Creating a short list which best fits with the stats available leaves us with the following runners – BLITHE SPIRIT 10/1, POWERALLIED 16/1, MAJESTIC HERO 11/2 & SOIE D’LEAU 12/1.

In terms of value, the most attractive option from this quartet appears to be SOIE D’LEAU. There is a serious question over his unfavourable draw from stall 12 and he’ll do very well to overcome this. However, there are lots of positives for the selection – he’s 5 years old, is a perfect fit in the weights, and comes here after having raced in the last three weeks – which six of the last ten winners have also done. He has a sole C&D victory (though that was technically over further) and has already had his first run back of the season. Over such a short trip a case could be made for most of these runners and it will undoubtedly be a fiercely competitive affair. However, the selection offers extremely good ‘place’ value and does tick a lot of boxes. With a good break and positioning, there’s every chance he can run very close to winning this.

SOIE D’LEAU 0.5 pts e/w 12/1 Generally Available