Value – A Note of Caution
A brief word on today’s selections. Two of the three could easily have been ‘filed’ under ‘One To Watch’, but as we’re looking for value over the long term, the idea is that we make plays that aren’t, by necessity, in line with market expectations. One selection is a rank-outsider who has good form (from one run) at the track and trip, but has produced nothing recently to suggest a win is on the horizon, the other is selected primarily on the form of his trainer’s two previous runs. Caution should be applied with all selections, but especially today as there are some prices that could easily put a lot of people off.
16:10 Lingfield 24 May 2017
Newstraid Charity Raceday Handicap (Class 5) (4YO plus) 4F 217Y
There’s a horse in here which has been presented with an opportunity that might work out nicely for him. Although GIVE US A BELLE has nothing in his recent form to suggest that he’s going to get his head in front today, there are a couple of pertinent points about his form here. He was a very close 2nd over C&D (admittedly two years ago) and hasn’t been seen back over this assignment since. He’s dropped 5lbs from that result and set a very good time of 57.90 that day. If he were able to reproduce anything close to that then there’s every chance he could run close to winning this one. His stable mate CLASSIC FLYER produced a good run LTO and a chance is taken that the two go well for trainer Mrs C A Dunnett. Preference is given for the selection from the pair based on his treatment and good course form (from one run). It looks like the ground will dry more by tomorrow, which is in his favour as well. Caution is called for with this selection, but as an outsider there’s something to like about this one.
GIVE US A BELLE 0.5 pts e/w 33/1 Generally Available
16:40 Lingfield 24 May 2017
Daily Mail Claiming Stakes (Class 6) (3YO plus) 7F 135Y
BLACK DAVE was a close 4th last time out and returns to a track where he won over this trip when last seen – from higher in the weights. That was on the AW though, so a chance is taken that he can translate that form to the turf version of the track. Katherine Glenister claims her full allowance and in a race with no real stand out candidates it’s worth siding with the selection for an each way value play.
BLACK DAVE 0.5 pts e/w 11/1 Generally Available
16:00 Yarmouth 24 May 2017
Pleasure Wood Hills Theme Park Handicap (Str) (Class 5) (4YO plus) 1M 3Y
D M Loughnane undoubtedly went into a few notebooks yesterday winning with PENSAX BOY (16/1 SP) returning from a break, and nearly getting the double with his other runner – also 16/1 SP. It should be noted that PENSAX BOY was already a good horse dropping down a couple of classes, so it wasn’t a complete surprise, but nevertheless, was completely missed by the market. With AFRICAN TADER having been away from the track for over 200 days, and presented here at a decent price, there’s a possibility that he will have been prepared as well as his two stable mates yesterday. ADMIRABLE ART and ANASTAZIA are both very well respected and will undoubtedly run well, but in what otherwise looks an open affair, it could be worth taking a chance that the selection is presented and ready to do the business on his return.
AFRICAN TRADER 0.5 pts e/w 33/1 Generally Available