Good-good to firm in places
Jumping straight into the stats – the highest weight horse to win this so far has been 9-4. One of those horses was SUEGIOO who runs today from 5lbs more. 6 year old’s have won this 4 times in the last 10 years – there’s no meaningful stats for other ages. There’s a slight low-draw bias with 6 winners coming from stalls 5 and under. 3/10 horses have won when returning from a break. Only 1 favourite has won in the last 10 years – MAMLOOK in 2010, with an SP of 7/1.
Although he returned from a break of 221 days to place second by a shoulder in this race, it’s hard to see NAKEETA overcoming his top-weight here. SUEGIOO won this in 2014, and hasn’t got his head in front since from 23 starts. FUN MAC is up 4lbs from as his LTO 3rd at Pontefract, but was beaten by 8 lengths that day and that was a much smaller field. WATERSMEET has been crushing it on the AW – winning 4 times from his last 8 starts. This is further than he’s guaranteed to get and his performance on the turf has not been his best. FIRST MOHICAN has won this year over 2 miles at Lingfield, but from 9lbs better off than he finds himself here. MONTALY’s most pertinent form was a 3rd over this trip at Newbury in July of last year. He was beaten by 4 lengths that day and is up in weight from that effort. MAGIC CIRCLE has a fantastic strike rate and is lightly enough raced, but at his highest ever weight assignment will have to find something extra to strike home in front. SEA OF HEAVEN goes well here and is fairly treated, so must be respected. DUKE OF CLARENCE hasn’t been seen since this race last year and from a similar weight finished 14/17. YORKIDDING is upped from his usual trip having only attempting this distance once before, finishing 7/33 and behind four of the other runners in this. ANGEL GABRIAL hasn’t won since 2014, with his best form a 3rd over shorter last season, beaten by just under 3 lengths. GOLDEN SPEAR has won a decent amount of prize money and has the eye catching jockey booking of Ryan Moore. He should be in good shape for this but it’s hard to build too much of case for him. GOOD TRADITION is dropped to a very handy weight and has a run this season already under his belt. Lightly raced for a 6 year old, he could be one to cause an upset in this running. A proper distance horse – THE CASHEL MAN is nicely treated here and the in-form William Buick rides. Returning from a break probably doesn’t help his chances in this, but if fit, he’s entitled to run very close to winning this. With perhaps the most appealing recent form coming into this – WHO DARES WINS is sure to get the trip and is bound to be in shape following his hurdling runs. SIR CHAUVELIN was a very good second over 2m at the end of April and if reproducing similar form here should go really well. BLAKENEY POINT was a winner LTO for Roger Charlton and having claimer Kieran Shoemark on board must be respected, though there might be the question of him getting the trip so early in his career.
SUMMARY: GOLDEN SPEAR has the breeding and jockey to get this, so must be respected, THE CASHEL MAN has good form at the longer trips and GOOD TRADITION is treated well and has plenty of each way appeal. However, fresh from his hurdling exploits, slight preference is for WHO DARES WINS. His treatment is good, he should be in excellent shape and we know he gets this trip all day long.
WHO DARES WINS 0.5 pts e/w 12/1 Available Ladbrokes
Watch Out For: GOOD TRADITION – 40/1 Generally Available